Risk disclosure

Last updated: April 25, 2026

Polymarket Weather is software that places trades on Polymarket weather markets on the user's behalf. Trading prediction markets carries real risk of capital loss. This page describes the risks specific to using Polymarket Weather. It is not legal, financial, or investment advice. By using Polymarket Weather you accept the risks set out below.

Capital loss

Every position Polymarket Weather takes can lose. The minimum-edge threshold and Kelly-sizing logic are designed to make losses on individual trades smaller than gains on average over many trades — they are not a guarantee. Bankroll can decrease, including to zero, on any given day or over any extended period. Past performance shown anywhere on this site or in the application does not predict future results.

Model uncertainty

Polymarket Weather's pricing layer is built on probabilistic forecasts from third-party meteorological models (ECMWF, GEFS, UKMO, NWS). These models can be wrong, can be late, can disagree with each other, and can fail to capture extreme weather events. The system's bias-correction and ensemble blending reduce — but do not eliminate — model error. The “Known limitations” section of the Polymarket Weather homepage describes the specific scenarios where the model is most likely to underperform.

Market and infrastructure risk

Polymarket is a third-party prediction market operating on the Polygon blockchain. Polymarket Weather does not control Polymarket's pricing, liquidity, market resolution decisions, or service availability. Polymarket markets can be:

• Illiquid, preventing exit at the user's preferred price
• Suspended, modified, or resolved against the user's expectation
• Affected by smart-contract bugs, blockchain congestion, or service outages

USDC stable-coin and Polygon network failures, as well as compromised wallet credentials, are also risks the user assumes when funding a trading wallet.

Resolution-source risk

Polymarket weather markets resolve based on a specific weather station's reading. Polymarket Weather verifies station mappings before trading a city, but resolution sources have changed mid-cycle in past markets. A market that resolves against an unexpected station can produce a loss that the model did not anticipate.

Jurisdictional restrictions

Polymarket is restricted in some jurisdictions, including in the United States. Users are responsible for knowing whether using Polymarket — and using software that interacts with Polymarket — is legal where they live. Polymarket Weather does not verify user jurisdiction and does not provide legal advice.

Software risk

Polymarket Weather is software. Bugs, downtime, configuration errors, network failures, and dependency outages can produce trades the user did not intend, miss trades the user did intend, or display incorrect information. The circuit breaker reduces — but does not eliminate — exposure during these failure modes.

Tax responsibility

Trading prediction markets may produce taxable events under the user's local tax regime. Polymarket Weather does not produce tax reports and does not provide tax advice. Users are responsible for tracking their own trading activity for tax purposes.

No fiduciary relationship

Polymarket Weather is a tool. The operating entity behind Polymarket Weather does not act as the user's broker, advisor, or fiduciary. Trading decisions, capital allocation, and acceptance of all risks above are the user's sole responsibility.

Note: replace “operating entity” above with the actual legal entity name before public launch.

Contact

For questions about this disclosure, contact [email protected].